Last Friday, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September rose after Fed Chair Wash stated that the Fed would have “a lot of work to do” if inflation showed no signs of cooling.The U.S. Dollar Index rose sharply during the U.S. trading session, ultimately closing up 0.56% at 99.68—its largest single-day gain in two and a half months;The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed up 4.7 basis points at 4.728%, while the 2-year Treasury yield—which is sensitive to Fed policy rates—closed up 12.2 basis points at 4.366%.
As the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened,spot gold plunged sharply during the U.S. trading session, hitting an intraday low of $4,445.52—a drop of nearly $200 from the day’s high—and ultimately closed down 3.22% at $4,454.28 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed down 4.25% at $66.31 per ounce.
Crude oil fluctuated lower as traders assessed hints regarding the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation policies and rumors of a potential agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude fluctuated around the $82 mark and ultimately closed down 0.21% at $82.76 per barrel; Brent crude ultimately closed down 0.33% at $87.97 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.25%, and the Nasdaq down 0.52%. Mewell Technology (MRVL.O) fell 10.28%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 4.57%;Intel (INTC.O) fell 2.85%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) fell 1.71%; Amazon (AMZN.O) rose 3.97%, Google (GOOG.O) rose 1.74%, and Apple (AAPL.O) rose 1.63%.The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.44%, with Alibaba (BABA.N) up 2.21% and Baidu (BIDU.O) up 0.19%.

Federal Reserve Chair Wash adopted a hawkish tone in his speech at Jackson Hole: he acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, made it clear that interest rates remain the primary policy tool, and stated that the Fed would “act as circumstances warrant”; at the same time, citing economic resilience, stable employment, and accommodative financial conditions, he explained that current policy risks are tilted more toward inflation.He also attributed the responsibility for 65 months of inflation exceeding the target to the central bank itself, correcting his ambiguous July statement that “the market should take the lead in raising rates instead of the Fed.” We believe this speech will help restore the Fed’s credibility, and following the remarks, the market has begun to price in a marginal improvement in policy credibility.In the long term, Warsh continues to maintain that AI may reshape the economic and policy framework and is pushing forward with a reform agenda that includes reducing forward guidance. For the market, these remarks have increased the probability of a Fed rate hike this year; however, even so, this is not necessarily purely negative.The market currently does not lack liquidity; what it lacks is policy discipline and predictability. As long as inflation can be brought under control in a timely manner, this will actually benefit the market in the medium term.
Prior to this speech, a major market concern stemmed from Wash’s ambiguous remarks at the July FOMC press conference—particularly his comment about “letting the market raise rates instead of the Fed”—which raised doubts about the Fed’s resolve to curb inflation. These concerns also contributed, to some extent, to the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields.For this very reason, the market widely hoped that Wash would offer some “correction” in today’s remarks. As we noted in our previous preview, Wash’s most urgent task is to send a clear signal to the market in order to rebuild the Fed’s credibility.

The U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated and edged higher this week. The U.S. July PCE data released on Wednesday reinforced the view that inflation is sticky, causing expectations for a September rate hike to rise slightly; however, concerns about the dollar’s creditworthiness stemming from U.S. Treasury repurchase agreements limited the currency’s gains.On Friday, Wash emphasized at Jackson Hole that the primary focus is on achieving the inflation target. The market interpreted this as a hawkish signal, causing the dollar to surge sharply in the short term; it closed at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week.
Analysts believe this marks the first time Wash has explicitly signaled a hawkish stance. He stated that the underlying trend of inflation has not substantially improved and that “there is still work to be done” if core inflation does not clearly return to the 2% target. Wash dismissed the effectiveness of forward guidance, emphasizing that financial conditions show no signs of being restrictive, thereby paving the way for a rate hike.Market bets on a rate hike in September have risen to nearly 60%, with the probability of a hike by December exceeding 90%.
Gold traded in a generally choppy and weak range this week. Early in the week, it briefly surged toward $4,700 per ounce, hitting its highest level since mid-May; subsequently, the PCE data drove up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, causing gold prices to fall by about 1.4% on Wednesday alone.Demand from ETFs and central banks continued to provide support, but prices fell following Wash’s remarks, dropping more than 3% in a single day—marking the worst single-day performance since early June—and closing at $4,454.28 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly decline of 3.24%. Spot silver fell 3.82% this week.
Crude oil fell significantly this week as the market assessed that the short-term supply shock from U.S. sanctions on Iran was less severe than that from military escalation, and traded on expectations of a de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz; on Thursday, prices rebounded slightly as prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations weakened.The U.S. military claimed to have cleared mines from the Strait of Hormuz, and Goldman Sachs estimated that two-thirds of Middle Eastern oil exports have resumed. Trump announced that the U.S. had gained “majority control” over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s oil reserves. Earlier reports indicated that Venezuela was seriously considering withdrawing from OPEC.

On Thursday, as the market awaited Federal Reserve Chair Wash’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated above the 99 mark and ultimately closed down 0.03% at 99.12;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed up 3.2 basis points at 4.681%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed up 2.4 basis points at 4.244%.
Spot gold began a decline during the Asian session, briefly falling to an intraday low of $4,565.19, before recouping all losses and returning above the $4,600 mark, ultimately closing up 0.16% at $4,601.63 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed up 1.68% at $69.26 per ounce.
Crude oil rose nearly 2% during the session after U.S. media reported that Trump had “no interest” in reviving the U.S.-Iran agreement from June.WTI crude briefly fell to around $80 during the European session but subsequently rebounded in a choppy trade and accelerated its gains during the U.S. session, ultimately closing up 1.87% at $82.95 per barrel; Brent crude ultimately closed up 2.19% at $88.26 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.72%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.57%. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose 2%, Tesla (TSLA.O) gained 2.6%,NVIDIA (NVDA.O) rose 8.7%, and Broadcom (AVGO.O) rose 4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.74%; Baidu (BIDU.O) rose 4%, while Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 3%.

On Wednesday, as a series of U.S. economic data releases fueled market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the U.S. Dollar Index rose steadily throughout the day and accelerated its gains ahead of the U.S. trading session, returning above the 99 mark. It ultimately closed up 0.26% at 99.15;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed up 1.6 basis points at 4.649%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—closed up 3.7 basis points at 4.220%.
Due to a stronger U.S. dollar, spot gold retreated, falling to near the $4,600 level, and ultimately closed down 1.38% at $4,594.47 per ounce; spot silver closed down 0.8% at $68.11 per ounce.
Crude oil continued to fluctuate during the Asian and European trading sessions, but both WTI and Brent crude saw a short-term rally following reports that Iran and Oman were discussing the details of an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude briefly surged to $82 during the session but subsequently gave back some of its gains, ultimately closing up 0.93% at $81.43 per barrel; Brent crude ultimately closed up 0.6% at $86.37 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.21%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.08%. Tesla (TSLA.O) fell 1%,Oracle (ORCL.N) rose 2.8%, NVIDIA (NVDA.O) fell more than 1%, and SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell nearly 1%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.6%, with iQIYI (IQ.O) falling more than 4%.

On Tuesday, as investors weighed Washington’s expanded sanctions against Iran and new measures taken to ease pressure on long-term Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar Index initially rose before falling. It briefly returned above the 99 mark during the session but subsequently gave up all its gains and turned lower, ultimately closing down 0.09% at 98.90;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed down 6.9 basis points at 4.633%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed down 6.1 basis points at 4.183%.
Spot gold briefly approached the $4,700 mark in early trading but failed to break through it; it subsequently pulled back and traded in a narrow range, ultimately closing up 0.15% at $4,658.60 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed down 0.42% at $68.66 per ounce.
Crude oil prices plummeted as traders shrugged off the latest U.S. sanctions against Iran and reports emerged that parties might return to mediation efforts to end the war.WTI crude oil continued to decline throughout the day, briefly falling below the $80 mark during the session, and ultimately closed down 4.57% at $80.68 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 5.02% at $85.86 per barrel.
All three major U.S. stock indexes rose,with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.3%, the S&P 500 up 0.32%, and the Nasdaq up 0.66%. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) rose more than 2%, while NVIDIA (NVDA.O) gained 2.1%,while AMD (AMD.O) rose nearly 5%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 1.1%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 0.8%.

On Monday, following the U.S. announcement of expanded sanctions against Iran and additional tariffs on Canadian goods, the U.S. Dollar Index briefly rose back above the 99 mark during intraday trading. However, it gave up some of its gains during the U.S. trading session and ultimately closed up 0.15% at 98.99;The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed down 3.4 basis points at 4.702%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—closed down 1.2 basis points at 4.232%.
Spot gold maintained its upward momentum, briefly surging above $4,680 during the session but failing to hold that level, eventually closing up 1.05% at $4,651.65 per ounce;Spot silver continued to fluctuate, eventually closing up 0.01% at $68.95 per ounce.
Crude oil gapped lower at the open and continued to fluctuate as some investors recently took profits and remained unconcerned about new U.S. sanctions against Iran.WTI crude fluctuated above $84 and ultimately closed down 2.03% at $84.55 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 2.17% at $90.39 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indices posted mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.26%,the S&P 500 fell 0.28%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.76%. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell 4.9%, Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 5.8%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) fell 6.4%,NVIDIA (NVDA.O) and Intel (INTC.O) fell by about 3%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.67%, with NetEase (NTES.O) down 4% and Alibaba (BABA.N) down 0.7%.

Last Friday, as market concerns grew that the U.S. Treasury’s plan to expand its repurchase of long-term government bonds could further weaken the dollar, the U.S. Dollar Index hovered near a three-month low, briefly falling to an intraday low of 98.56 before closing down 0.03% at 98.84;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed up 2.7 basis points at 4.739%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed up 5.1 basis points at 4.240%.
Driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and technical factors, spot gold surged by more than $100 during the session, briefly breaking above $4,630, and ultimately closed up 1.86% at $4,603.25 per ounce;Spot silver briefly returned above $70 and ultimately closed up 1.26% at $68.94 per ounce.
Crude oil continued to fluctuate as Trump threatened to impose economic sanctions on Iran’s trading partners.WTI crude hovered above $86 and ultimately closed up 0.42% at $86.34 per barrel; Brent crude closed up 0.74% at $92.39 per barrel.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.98%,the S&P 500 rose 0.43%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.43%. Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 5.14%, Oracle (ORCL.N) rose 3.11%, and SpaceX (SPCX.O) rose 2.22%.Intel (INTC.O) fell 2.24%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 0.98%.The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.4%; Baidu (BIDU.O) rose 1.35%, while Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 8.59%.

After a week of volatile trading, major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Friday, buoyed by solid economic data showing that U.S. business activity grew at its fastest pace in more than four years,with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising about 1% and the Nasdaq ending its five-day losing streak; however, U.S. stocks still posted weekly losses as investors remained unsettled by volatility in U.S. Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East.
After global bond markets experienced a round of sharp volatility triggered by inflation concerns and fiscal spending, U.S. authorities intervened to curb long-term borrowing costs. The market is awaiting the new fiscal consolidation plan promised by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent.Strategists believe long-term bond yields will stabilize in the short term, but warn that if the U.S. Treasury market plan falls through, it could weigh on the dollar and prompt a flight from risk assets.
Crude oil futures rose for the sixth consecutive day after U.S. President Trump threatened to impose economic sanctions on Iran’s trading partners, heightening expectations of tight supply and fueling inflation concerns.This week, Brent crude futures rose 6.39%, while U.S. crude futures gained 5.66%.
Driven by multiple factors—including concerns over U.S. debt sustainability, a weaker dollar, and the U.S. Treasury’s unexpected expansion of its long-term Treasury repurchase program—spot gold prices broke strongly above $4,600 per ounce this week, marking their third consecutive week of gains.Gold opened near $4,381 at the start of the week. On Wednesday, after the Treasury announced it would double the scale of its repurchases of 10- to 30-year U.S. Treasuries, the price quickly broke through the $4,500 mark,and subsequently reached a weekly high of $4,632.14 on Friday, driven by dovish signals from the Fed’s July meeting minutes and ongoing fiscal concerns.
With the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium approaching next week, investors remain highly vigilant for any policy signals that Fed Chair Wash may send, as his remarks could affect the current fragile market balance.U.S. data to be released next week includes the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
Meanwhile, next week’s earnings report from Nvidia is seen as a potential catalyst for the S&P 500 to break through the 8,000-point mark, but tech stocks have come under significant pressure this week, with the semiconductor sector falling more than 4% over the past week.
Investors must remain highly vigilant to navigate the underlying market currents created by the interplay of multiple factors—especially as turmoil in the bond market has finally begun to spill over into the stock market.

The U.S. Dollar Index weakened significantly this week, plunging sharply midweek following news that the U.S. Treasury would expand the scale of its long-term Treasury repurchases. It fell below the 99 mark for the first time since June, hitting a low of around 98.56. With market attention focused on the U.S. budget deficit, long-term debt pressures, and changes in the interest rate path, the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset has diminished somewhat.On Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index closed at 98.85.
Spot gold performed strongly this week, briefly breaking through the $4,600 per ounce psychological barrier and hitting its highest level since late May; on Wednesday, it rose by more than $180 in a single day.Key factors driving the market included a weaker U.S. dollar, a temporary pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, and concerns over fiscal risks stemming from the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of Treasury repurchase agreements. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in the Middle East bolstered safe-haven demand.On Friday, spot gold closed at $4,603.25 per ounce, up 5.2%, marking its third consecutive week of gains.
International oil prices rose overall this week, driven primarily by risks to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and supply concerns stemming from U.S. threats of further economic sanctions against Iran.Early in the week, escalating tensions in the Middle East briefly pushed oil prices up by more than 3% in a single day. The market then shifted its focus to news such as the U.S. military opening a shipping lane, causing oil prices to consolidate briefly; however, the escalation of sanctions once again drove up the risk premium.
U.S. stocks experienced a volatile decline this week, with the three major indices under overall pressure. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posted losses. Although there was a slight rebound on Friday, for the week as a whole, the Dow fell 0.85%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.43%, and the Nasdaq declined 2.05%.U.S. quantitative hedge funds suffered their worst single-day drawdown of 2023 this week. Among individual stocks, Moderna surged as much as 176.9% in a single day on the back of major news; Walmart fell 9% in a single day due to earnings performance and market expectations, becoming the main drag on the consumer sector.