Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks by both sides causing the fragile ceasefire—which had held for about three weeks—to collapse, plunging shipping through the Strait of Hormuz back into a near-standstill. Nevertheless, according to reports from various foreign media outlets, mediators have not yet given up on their efforts to broker a resolution.
As the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz reignited concerns over oil market supply, international oil prices posted weekly gains. Brent crude briefly touched $80 per barrel during the week, with a cumulative weekly increase of 5.5%, while WTI crude rose 3.92% for the week—both marking their largest weekly gains in eight weeks.In addition, Russia’s announcement of a diesel export ban has exacerbated global fuel supply tensions.
Inflationary pressures driven by rising oil prices have reignited expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy. International spot gold closed down 1.33% this week, while international spot silver closed down 4.07%.The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting revealed that, as inflationary pressures intensify, FOMC officials remain deeply divided on the future path of interest rates, though calls for rate hikes have grown stronger. U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield climbing more than 7 basis points this week and the 10-year Treasury yield rising 8 basis points.
U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties as the “AI trading” boom regained momentum; the S&P 500 index approached a record high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded their second consecutive weekly gains.SK Hynix ADRs surged 13% on their first trading day, and the $26.5 billion raised made it the largest foreign IPO in U.S. stock market history.
The U.S. dollar rose, driven by a combination of interest rate differentials and safe-haven premiums, briefly returning to the 101 mark.As another focus in the foreign exchange market, the yen received a brief boost after Japan’s finance minister called for pension funds to increase their allocation to domestic assets, but the market subsequently expressed widespread skepticism about whether the policy could actually be implemented and reverse the yen’s decline.

On Thursday, as sources indicated that Pakistan was still mediating and that a window for U.S.-Iran negotiations might reopen, the U.S. Dollar Index retreated from around 101 and ultimately closed down 0.12% at 100.94;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.558%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.189%.
Trump stated that Iran wants to reach an agreement, and reports indicated that Iran currently has no intention of dragging Israel into the conflict, which eased concerns that the escalation of hostilities would drive up inflation and push interest rates higher.Spot gold traded in a choppy uptrend, reaching a high of $4,138 per ounce, and ultimately closed up 1.14% at $4,123.82 per ounce;Spot silver briefly broke above the $60 mark and ultimately closed up 2.85% at $59.96 per ounce.
International oil prices fell as traders anticipated that the U.S.-Iran conflict would be limited in scope, easing concerns about further attacks on energy infrastructure.WTI crude oil ultimately closed down 3.82% at $71.69 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 4.1% at $76.02 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.3%. Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 4.5%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) gained 7.5%, and Western Digital (WDC.O) rose 5%.Meta Platforms (META.O) rose 4.7%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.56%, with iQIYI (IQ.O) up 8.5% and Alibaba (BABA.N) up 2%.

On Wednesday, amid uncertainty over the prospects for a provisional U.S.-Iran agreement, the U.S. Dollar Index retreated after hitting a one-week high, ultimately closing down 0.02% at 101.05;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.770%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield—which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate—closed at 4.229%.
Trump stated that the ceasefire with Iran had ended, sparking concerns that a resumption of war could once again push up inflation and drive interest rates higher.Spot gold continued its decline but narrowed its losses after approaching the 4,020 mark, ultimately closing down 0.69% at $4,077.52 per ounce; spot silver closed down 2.78% at $58.30 per ounce.
The U.S. launched another attack on Iran, and Trump stated that the temporary peace agreement had ended, intensifying concerns over oil supplies in the region and sending international oil prices soaring to a two-week high. Crude oil prices retreated from their intraday highs after Trump said he did not believe a full-scale war would resume.WTI crude ultimately closed up 3.28% at $74.38 per barrel; Brent crude closed up 4.1% at $79.32 per barrel.
In U.S. stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.09%, the S&P 500 fell 0.28%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%.Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 1%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 3.6%, and SanDisk (SNDK.O) rose 6.7%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 2.05%, with Alibaba (BABA.N) rising 11%.

On Tuesday, after the U.S. Treasury Department revoked exemptions allowing the sale of Iranian oil, markets grew concerned that high energy prices would prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.The U.S. Dollar Index climbed back above 101, ultimately closing up 0.22% at 101.09; the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.556%, while the 2-year Treasury yield—which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate—closed at 4.197%.
Spot gold rose before retreating, ultimately closing down 1.43% at $4,105.70 per ounce; spot silver fell below $60, closing down 3.3% at $59.98 per ounce.
International oil prices rose after the U.S. reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil following allegations that Iran attacked a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker from Qatar near the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. military strikes targeted multiple locations in southern Iran.WTI crude oil closed up 5.01% at $72.38 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 5.4% at $75.81 per barrel.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.25%,the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.16%. Memory chip stocks continued to decline, with SanDisk (SNDK.O) down 7%, Western Digital (WDC.O) down nearly 8%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) down 4.7%.SpaceX (SPCX.O) fell nearly 7%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.57%, with iQIYI (IQ.O) falling nearly 7%.

On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index rose before retreating; it briefly touched 101 during the session and ultimately closed down 0.01% at 100.86;The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.474%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.116%.
Affected by the dollar’s strong performance in early trading, spot gold opened higher but closed lower, ultimately ending down 0.25% at $4,165.13 per ounce; spot silver closed down 0.59% at $62.06 per ounce.
No new progress was reported in U.S.-Iran negotiations, but ships continued to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, causing international oil prices to consolidate with volatility. WTI crude closed slightly lower, down 0.23%, at $68.61 per barrel; Brent crude ultimately closed up 0.05%, at $71.99 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.3%, the S&P 500 up 0.7%, and the Nasdaq up 1.1%. Western Digital (WDC.O) rose 7%, Broadcom (AVGO.O) rose 3.7%,ASML (ASML.O) rose 3%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) and Intel (INTC.O) each rose around 1%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 1.7%, with NIO (NIO.N) rising 4.7%.

Last Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index closed slightly lower by 0.01% at 100.87, following Thursday’s decline, marking its largest weekly drop since April. This came after a weak U.S. jobs report dampened market expectations for an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.90%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.181%.
Spot gold rose on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar, briefly approaching $4,200 during the session before ultimately closing up 1.18% at $4,175.7 per ounce, marking its first weekly gain after four consecutive weeks of declines;Spot silver ultimately closed up 2.28% at $62.37 per ounce.
The U.S.-Iran negotiations remain fragile, with disputes persisting over transit fees and management of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a slight rise in international crude oil prices.WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 0.44% at $68.73 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 0.49% at $71.94 per barrel.
Major European stock indices closed higher across the board, with Germany’s DAX 30 index up 0.78%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index up 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.82%.
U.S. stock markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday.

China’s refined oil prices are set to be cut again, with gasoline and diesel prices falling by 950 yuan and 915 yuan per metric ton, respectively. According to Xinhua News Agency, this price adjustment marks the largest decline of the year and the biggest drop in nearly six years.
So far this year, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted 13 times. Excluding the first adjustment at the beginning of the year, which did not result in a price change, there have been eight increases and four decreases. As of now, gasoline prices are 590 yuan per metric ton higher than at the start of the year.
Looking ahead to oil price trends in the second half of the year, Yao Daming, Secretary-General of the Guangdong Petroleum Society, told a reporter from *Times Weekly* that since international oil prices are gradually becoming less influenced by supply and demand dynamics and are instead driven by narratives—particularly those in U.S. public discourse—and given that the Strait of Hormuz has now entered the mine-clearing phase,and the situation in the Middle East is relatively stable, oil prices may trend downward in the second half of the year.
However, he predicted that the turning point for the decline might occur around October, because “negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are unlikely to go smoothly, and there remains a possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed again.”
On January 1 of this year, WTI and Brent crude oil prices stood at $83.37 per barrel and $87.81 per barrel, respectively. At that time, domestic 92-octane gasoline was approximately 6.72 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline was 7.22 yuan per liter.
As of the time of publication (July 3), WTI and Brent crude oil prices stood at $69.06 per barrel and $72.30 per barrel, respectively—down $14.31 per barrel and $15.51 per barrel from their prices at the beginning of the year.
Reflecting these changes in domestic gasoline prices—which have seen eight increases and four decreases—the current price is 590 yuan per metric ton higher than at the beginning of the year, though it still lags somewhat behind the fluctuations in international oil prices.

The U.S. Dollar Index saw an overall fluctuating decline this week. Federal Reserve Chair Wash noted that both inflation expectations and risks have eased. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by only 57,000 in June, with the previous figure revised downward, dampening near-term rate hike expectations and causing U.S. Treasury yields to fall.dollar bulls took profits, and the index closed at 100.87 on Friday, down 0.51%, marking its first weekly decline in three weeks.
Spot gold halted its decline and rebounded this week, briefly touching $4,200 per ounce on Friday, and posted its first weekly gain in five weeks.Weak nonfarm payrolls data dampened bets on a Fed rate hike, and the dollar’s pullback boosted gold’s appeal. Combined with the resumption of central bank gold purchases, safe-haven demand and rate-cut trades jointly fueled bullish sentiment. Silver outperformed gold this week, with its industrial attributes supported by improved risk appetite.Spot gold and silver closed at $4,174.66 and $62.38 per ounce, respectively, on Friday, up 2.29% and 6.1%.
International oil prices fluctuated and declined overall this week, with both Brent and WTI briefly falling to their lowest levels since the U.S.-Iran conflict, before stabilizing slightly ahead of the long weekend due to risk hedging. The resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and increased supply from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia suppressed risk premiums, shifting the market from a tight-supply trade to a wait-and-see stance.
U.S. stocks closed higher this week, with the S&P 500 up about 1.8%, the Nasdaq up about 2.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up about 2%, with the Dow hitting a new closing high. Weak nonfarm payrolls data eased pressure for interest rate hikes, but capital shifted from crowded chip and AI plays to the Dow, industrials, and cyclical stocks;The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.45% on Thursday, with Nvidia retreating and SanDisk dropping 14%. Tesla fell about 7.5% after its delivery news was priced in, while Apple rose nearly 5%, supporting market sentiment. U.S. markets were closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

On Thursday, the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report showed that job growth fell far short of expectations, prompting the market to quickly adjust its expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with investors now betting that interest rate hikes will be delayed until the end of the year.The U.S. Dollar Index fell sharply after the data was released, dropping to a two-week low, and ultimately closed down 0.54% at 100.87; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.490%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.181%.
Spot gold surged sharply, touching $4,140 per ounce, and ultimately closed up 2.3% at $4,123.96 per ounce; spot silver closed up 3.14% at $60.97 per ounce.
Sources say the next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations will take place on July 18. It is reported that major European countries currently believe that the imposition of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz is now inevitable.WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 0.58% at $68.42 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 0.57% at $71.84 per barrel.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.1%, setting another record high. The S&P 500 edged lower, while the Nasdaq fell 0.8%.Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 5.4%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) dropped 14%, Intel (INTC.O) fell 5%, and Seagate Technology (STX.O) and Western Digital (WDC.O) both fell by around 10%.Apple (AAPL.O) bucked the trend, rising 4.8%, while Meta (META.O) fell nearly 5%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.77%, with Baidu (BIDU.O) and Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) both down around 4%.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Wash said that inflation expectations and inflation risks had eased somewhat in recent weeks.The U.S. Dollar Index rose but then pared its gains, ultimately closing up 0.25% at 101.39; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.458%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.183%.
As U.S. ADP employment data came in below expectations and Wash’s remarks that inflation is easing pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower, spot gold closed up 0.59% at $4,031.29 per ounce;Spot silver ultimately closed up 0.92% at $59.11 per ounce.
Trump said talks in Qatar were progressing smoothly, and optimism surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations eased market concerns about crude oil supply.WTI crude ultimately closed down 2.68% at $68.03 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 3.05% at $71.16 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down 0.66%.NVIDIA (NVDA.O) fell 1%, Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 10.5%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) fell 10.6%, AMD (AMD.O) fell 6.8%, and Meta (META.O) rose 8.8%.The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged 2.9%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 2%.