On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran are in their final stages, while warning that Iran will face further attacks unless it agrees to a deal.
Market expectations of an imminent U.S. deal with Iran to end the war in the Middle East heated up as the dollar index retreated from a six-week high to end down 0.03% at 99.12, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.592%, and the 2-year U.S. yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, ended at 4.066%.
Spot gold regained the 4540 mark and ended up 1.38% at $4543.79 per ounce; spot silver ended up 2.92% at $75.85 per ounce.
Investors’ hopes for an imminent U.S.-Iran deal were ignited, and international oil prices fell heavily. wti crude oil finally closed down 4.73% at $102.53/barrel; brent crude oil closed down 4.97% at $105.48/barrel.
U.S. stocks closed up 1.3% on the Dow, 1.08% on the S&P 500 and 1.5% on the Nasdaq. Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 4.7 percent, NVIDIA (NVDA.O) gained 1 percent, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 3 percent and Intel (INTC.O) rose 7 percent. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.4 percent, with Beili (BILI.O) down 8 percent and Global Data (GDS.O) down 9 percent.

On Monday, Trump said the attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday was put on hold at the request of Middle Eastern countries. In the event that an acceptable agreement is not reached, a large-scale full-scale military strike against Iran should be ready for immediate execution.
The U.S. dollar index dived, eventually closing down 0.02% at 98.96 points; the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond closed at 4.593%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. bond, which is sensitive to Fed policy rates, closed at 4.059%.
Spot gold pulled up quickly, eventually closing up 0.58% at $4,566.19 per ounce; spot silver eventually closed up 2.25% at $77.68 per ounce.
U.S. and Brent oil quickly retreated, after once rose more than 3%. WTI crude oil finally closed up 0.92% at $106.87 / barrel; Brent crude oil almost back out of all the gains during the day, finally closed up 0.19% at $109.35 / barrel.
The U.S. Dow closed up 0.3%, the S&P 500 lost 0.07%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 1%, Micron Technology (MU.O) dropped 6% and Tesla (TSLA.O) fell nearly 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.7 percent and Ideal Motors (LI.O) fell nearly 10 percent.

On Friday, a wave of bond selling set off globally. As U.S. inflation data soared across the board, a number of key indicators hit multi-year highs, traders have now basically ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, while the year’s bets on interest rate hikes have warmed up.
Boosted by the Fed’s interest rate outlook tightening, the dollar index rose for four consecutive days, breaking through the key psychological barrier of 99, and ultimately closed up 0.42% at 99.28, refreshing the highs since the beginning of April; benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields soared nearly 14 basis points to 4.596%, the highest level since February 2025, and hit the largest one-day increase in more than a year; the 2-year U.S. bond yields particularly sensitive to interest rate policy rose nearly 14 basis points to 4.596%, the highest level since February 2025, and hit the largest one-day increase in more than a year; the interest rate policy is particularly sensitive to the 2 year U.S. bond yields rose nearly 9 basis points to 4.075%.
The dollar higher directly impact on precious metals. Spot gold plunged more than $110 in a single day, losing the $4,540 mark, and finally closed down 2.41% at $4,538.45 per ounce; spot silver closed down 9.07% at $75.90 per ounce.
With the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggering market concerns about global inventory drawdowns, international oil prices rose significantly. wti crude ended up 3.12% at $105.22/barrel; brent crude ended up 2.36% at $109.15/barrel.

Over the past week, by the Iranian war-driven spike in energy prices, U.S. inflation data soared across the board, with several key indicators hitting multi-year highs. Traders have now basically ruled out the possibility of a Fed rate cut this year, while bets on a rate hike within the year have heated up. On Friday, a wave of bond selling set in globally.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields soared nearly 14 basis points to 4.595%, the highest level since February 2025, and hit more than a year of the largest one-day rise; on interest rate policy is particularly sensitive to the 2-year U.S. bond yields rose nearly 9 basis points to 4.079%, significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s policy rate cap of 3.7%; 30-year U.S. bond yields jumped nearly 11 basis points to 5.127%, the highest closing level since July 2007. Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and other countries of the long end of the Treasury yields synchronized sharp rise, have touched multi-year and even record highs.
In the borrowing costs continue to rise, high energy prices in the environment, high valuation assets want to continue to maintain the upward trend of increasing difficulty. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell back significantly, the S&P 500 fell to close down 1.24%, but still rose for seven consecutive weeks to record more than two years of the longest streak of gains, the Nasdaq ended six weeks of consecutive gains. Chip stocks in the U.S. and overseas were among the hardest hit sectors after rising sharply over the past month.
Overseas stock markets also performed poorly, especially after strong gains in South Korea’s KOSPI index, the disk once broke through the 8,000-point all-time high, but then quickly jumped, and the afternoon decline once expanded to 7%, and even triggered the melting mechanism.

Since 2026, the dollar, which should have strengthened significantly, has actually been relatively flat, supported by a combination of solid economic growth, strong stock market performance and safe-haven demand from the war in Iran. However, this situation could turn around as interest rate expectations change.
Markets have recently reassessed the Fed’s policy path. Federal funds rate futures and the bond market suggest that investors are increasingly inclined to believe that there will be no rate cuts in 2026, and that there is even the possibility of a rate hike. The probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike this year has risen to more than 30% from near zero two weeks ago after oil prices rose due to the war in Iran, pushing inflation to a three-year high.
Interest rates staying high for an extended period of time usually favors the U.S. dollar because higher yields attract overseas flows into U.S. assets such as Treasuries and money-market instruments, and those allocations first require buying dollars, which pushes up the exchange rate.
But the foreign exchange market did not fully accept this logic before. Bank of America G10 foreign exchange strategy director Alex Cohen (Alex Cohen) pointed out that the dollar’s performance is limited, the key reason is that the market is not enough Fed rate hike expectations. He said: “The lack of expectations for a Fed rate hike seems to be weighing on the dollar. The energy-induced global inflation shock has repriced the interest rate paths of other G10 central banks, but FX markets remain reluctant to significantly account for a Fed hike.”

On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index advanced for the third consecutive session, ending up 0.38% at 98.88; the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond closed at 4.489%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. bond, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.03%.
With soaring inflation prompting investors to weigh the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, spot gold continued its downtrend, hitting a low of 4644.42 U.S. dollars / ounce, and ultimately closed down 0.78% at 4652.46 U.S. dollars / ounce; spot silver retraced sharply, ending seven days of consecutive gains, and ultimately closed down 4.63% at 83.48 U.S. dollars / ounce.
International oil prices oscillated sideways, and Iran said more than 30 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in a coordinated manner since Wednesday night.WTI crude oil gained support near the 100 mark, and finally closed up 0.96% at $102.04/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.75% at $103.87/barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, the Dow closed up 0.75%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.77%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.88%, the latter two continued to record highs. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose more than 4%, and market capitalization closed above $5.7 trillion, a record high. New stock Cerebras closed up 68%, while Qualcomm (QCOM.O) fell 6%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 3.3 percent, with Baidu (BIDU.O) down 4.7 percent and Alibaba (BABA.N) down 3 percent.

On Wednesday, the U.S. PPI surged to a four-year high in April, driven by a combination of higher energy and service prices, the latest sign of accelerating inflation during the Iran war.
The U.S. dollar index extended gains, eventually closing up 0.21% at 98.47; the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond closed at 4.465%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. bond, which is sensitive to Fed policy rates, closed at 3.994%.
Spot gold shook lower, losing the important psychological barrier of $4,700, and finally closed down 0.56% at $4,688.95 per ounce; spot silver rose for seven consecutive days, refreshing a new high since March 11, and finally closed up 1.1% at $87.54 per ounce.
International oil prices retreated. WTI crude oil showed an inverted V-shaped trend, the day’s highest touched $103.75 / barrel, then erased all the gains, and finally closed down 1.22% at $101.07 / barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 2.09% at $103.09 / barrel.
U.S. stocks closed down 0.1% on the Dow, while the S&P 500 gained 0.59% and the Nasdaq rose 1.2%, with the latter two both hitting new closing highs. Micron Technology (MU.O) rose more than 4%, Google (GOOG.O) gained nearly 4%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) both rose more than 2%. Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 3.9%, Baidu (BIDU.O) rose more than 7%, Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 8%.

On Tuesday, U.S. CPI data for April showed that soaring energy prices pushed overall inflation to a three-year high, and expectations for a Fed rate hike within the year are heating up. Meanwhile, as hopes for a peace deal waned, the U.S. and Iran once again exchanged harsh words.
The U.S. dollar index rose, hitting a new high for nearly a week, and eventually closed up 0.37% at 98.29; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.457%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, closed at 4.002%.
Spot gold once plunged more than 2%, V-shaped rebound in the U.S. trading session, narrowing intraday losses, and finally closed down 0.41% at $4,715.33 per ounce; spot silver closed higher for the sixth consecutive trading day, and finally closed up 0.54% at $86.58 per ounce. Rebounding demand and supply risks pushed LME copper prices above $14,000, approaching record highs.
As the market’s concern about the continuation of the war in Iran intensified, international oil prices continued to rise. wti crude oil was once close to $103, and finally closed up 3.76% at $102.32/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 2.71% at $105.3/barrel.

On Monday, after rejecting Iran’s latest peace proposal, Trump said the U.S.-Iranian cease-fire is still on “life support”, but it was also revealed that he is studying and judging the re-use of force against Iran.
Affected by the news that the U.S. and Iran failed to agree on a peace deal, the U.S. dollar index jumped higher, then erased most of the day’s gains, and ultimately closed up 0.09% at 97.92; benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.413%, and 2-year U.S. bond yields, which are sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, closed at 3.966%.
As the dollar and U.S. bond yields narrowed their intraday gains, precious metals opened lower and then higher. Spot gold hit a high of 4748.55, up nearly $100 from the day’s low, and eventually closed up 0.43% at $4734.97/oz; spot silver rose even more, driven by technical buying, and eventually closed up 7.18% at $86.12/oz.
U.S.-Iran tensions continue to make the energy supply risk lingering, international oil prices after the high open to maintain gains. wti crude oil once back above $100, and finally closed up 3.4%, at $98.62 / barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 3.74%, at $102.51 / barrel.

On Friday, strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April increased the Fed’s bottom line to keep interest rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the UAE was attacked again, and the restrained exchange of fire between the United States and Iran in the area around the Strait of Hormuz returned to calm but the situation remains tense.
U.S. dollar index in the early Asian trading session after the U.S. and Iran burst into a firefight to refresh the daily high, but then erased all the gains during the day, and ultimately closed down 0.433% at 97.84, last week recorded the fifth decline in six weeks, hitting a low of more than two months; benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.359%, the Fed’s policy rate-sensitive 2-year U.S. bond yields closed at 3.895%.
Precious metals range-bound, waiting for clarity on the U.S.-Iran deal. Spot gold once approached the $4,750 mark and eventually closed up 0.6% at $4,714.89 per ounce; spot silver closed up 2.35% at $80.35 per ounce.
International oil prices were under pressure, despite sporadic exchanges of fire between the U.S. and Iran, but both sides have no intention of escalating the situation, thus supporting the market’s optimism about the prospects for peace. wti crude oil finally closed down 3.12% at $95.37/barrel; brent crude oil finally closed down 2.4% at $98.82/barrel.