The dollar index overall performance shock this week. Driven by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, once stood on 98.5; mid-week U.S.-Iraq ceasefire is expected to heat up, oil prices plummeted, the dollar fell back to 98 below, closed at 97.84 on Friday, for the second consecutive weekly decline. The core logic of the market around oil prices, risk aversion and the Federal Reserve interest rate is expected to switch.
Precious metals this week, the overall first down and then up. Gold early in the week by the “high oil prices push up inflation expectations” dragged weaker, but in the middle of the week with the oil price plunge, gold prices quickly returned to 4700 U.S. dollars above, closed at 4715.49 U.S. dollars / ounce on Friday, up 2.17%. Silver performance is stronger, risk appetite repair superimposed on the industrial attributes led to its rise significantly ahead of gold, closed at $80.33 / ounce on Friday, up 6.64%.
International oil prices experienced a “geopolitical premium collapse” this week. At the beginning of the week, Brent is still above $100, but in the middle of the week, the market bets on the U.S. and Iran close to a ceasefire, Brent oil plummeted and lost the $95 mark, WTI once fell to $90 near.
Non-US currencies, the yen has become the biggest anomaly this week, the Japanese authorities are suspected of multiple interventions, including on Wednesday, the dollar against the yen short sharp fall from 157.8 to near 155, and then back above 156, showing that the intervention mainly suppress the rhythm of fluctuations. The euro was driven by the dollar’s retreat, maintaining oscillations above 1.17.

Data released Friday showed that the U.S. April quarterly non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 people, lower than the 185,000 in March after the upward revision, but higher than the market expectation of an increase of 62,000 people, for the first time in nearly a year to achieve two consecutive months of growth; the U.S. unemployment rate recorded in April 4.3%, unchanged from the previous month, in line with the market’s expectations.
After the release of the data, spot gold rose 20 dollars in a short period of time, spot silver rushed up to 81 dollars, the U.S. index fell back slightly.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that total nonfarm payrolls for February were revised downward by 23,000, from a decrease of 133,000 to a decrease of 156,000, while the March figure was revised upward by 7,000, from an increase of 178,000 to an increase of 185,000.
With these revisions, combined employment for February and March was down 16,000 from the previously released figure. After the revisions, February’s numbers look worse and March’s slightly better.
After last year’s near-zero job growth, this nonfarm payrolls report is showing that the U.S. labor market is stabilizing. Although labor demand remains weak, layoffs have been kept low and tax cuts have provided a boost to consumer spending and business investment.

The controversy surrounding the Strait of Hormuz added to market volatility on Thursday as investors closely watched the progress of the U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell and then rose, before continuing to rise after Iran’s still limited opening of the Strait of Hormuz, ending up 0.26% at 98.26. U.S. bond yields rallied, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. yield closing at 4.391%, and the 2-year yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, closing at 3.913%.
While market expectations that the U.S. and Iran may be close to an interim deal eased inflation concerns, the central point of contention was put on hold limiting the precious metals’ gains. Spot gold showed an inverted V trend, the U.S. market from the highs above $4,760 / ounce back down, erasing all the intraday gains, and finally closed down 0.08% at $4,687.24 / ounce; spot silver trend was similar, and finally closed up 1.4% at $78.43 / ounce.
International oil prices rebounded in a deep V. WTI crude rebounded in response to Iran’s introduction of new rules for the Strait of Hormuz to continue its efforts to institutionalize control of the waterway, ending up 1.45% at $99.27/bbl; Brent crude ended up 0.79% at $101.25/bbl.
The three major U.S. stock indexes retreated collectively, with the Dow closing down 0.63%, the S&P 500 down 0.38%, and the Nasdaq down 0.13%, while Arm (ARM.O) fell 10%, Tesla (TSLA.O) gained 3%, and Intel (INTC.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) fell 3%. The Nasdaq China Gold Dragon Index closed down 1.4 percent.

On Wednesday, U.S. media said Iran is “evaluating” the U.S. proposal for a truce memorandum of understanding that includes 14 provisions, and Trump has repeatedly expressed optimism about a deal while threatening to restart bombing. The Iranian side pointed out that the U.S. media reports are inaccurate, said it is still reviewing the U.S. proposal.
The U.S. dollar index fell hard, driven by a combination of weakening safe-haven appeal and doubts over Japan’s foreign exchange intervention, hitting a low of 97.62 before eventually closing down 0.486% at 98.01. U.S. bond yields extended their losses, with the benchmark 10-year yield closing at 4.351% and the 2-year yield, which is sensitive to Fed policy rates, closing at 3.87%.
U.S.-Iranian peace talks hopes rekindled to further ease inflation concerns and upward pressure on interest rates, spot gold stood on 4720 U.S. dollars / ounce during the session, hitting a new high of more than a week, and ultimately closed up 2.93% at 4691.05 U.S. dollars / ounce; spot silver closed up 6.2% at 77.35 U.S. dollars / ounce.
International oil prices jumped. After the U.S. and Iran were rumored to be close to a memorandum of understanding agreement to end the war, WTI crude oil continued to sink, at one point fell more than 13%, losing $ 90 per barrel for the first time since April 21, and then rebounded after Trump threatened to restart the bombing and Iran weakened the market’s expectations, and ultimately ended 6.3% lower at $ 97.09 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately ended 7.82% lower at $ 100.45 per barrel .

On Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Hergeseth said the U.S. cease-fire with Iran remains in effect, easing fears that the region will slide back into all-out war after this week’s attack in the UAE.
The U.S. dollar index traded sideways and ended up 0.019% at 98.48. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond closed at 4.429%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. bond, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, closed at 3.95%.
Precious metals rallied as signs that the U.S.-Iranian cease-fire is still in effect eased inflation concerns and upward pressure on interest rates. Spot gold rose and then fell, hitting a high of $4,586.61 per ounce before finally closing up 0.74% at $4,557.55 per ounce; spot silver closed up 0.14% at $72.83 per ounce.
International oil prices fell, but remained high as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed.WTI crude oil ended down 2.45% at $103.63/bbl; Brent crude oil ended down 2.96% at $108.96/bbl.

On Monday, the already shaky ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was on the verge of collapse, the UAE was attacked for the first time since the temporary U.S.-Iranian ceasefire, the U.S. launched a “Freedom Program” to help ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran said two missiles hit a U.S. warship, but was later refuted by the U.S. Central Command. Investor panic increased, worried about the war on the global economy will further expand the impact.
Due to the escalation of U.S.-Iranian tensions pushed up risk aversion, the dollar index strengthened, and ultimately closed up 0.25% at 98.46; U.S. bond yields rose across the board, the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.442%, the Federal Reserve’s policy rate-sensitive 2-year U.S. yields closed at 3.962%, the 30-year U.S. bond yields for the first time since last year’s July, exceeding 5%.
Precious metals were pressured lower by rising interest rate pressures due to inflation concerns. Spot gold approached the $4,500 mark during the session and eventually closed down 1.97% at $4,523.88/oz; spot silver closed down 3.49% at $72.73/oz.
International oil prices rebounded strongly as Iran claimed to have hit a U.S. warship and news of the attack on the UAE caused oil prices to rally sharply during the session. wti crude oil finally closed up 2.24% at $106.23/barrel; brent crude oil finally closed up 4.38% at $112.28/barrel.

On Friday, Iran had submitted the text of its latest negotiating proposal to Pakistan last Thursday, according to a CCTV report citing Iranian media. Later, Pakistani officials said Iran’s latest negotiation proposal had been forwarded to U.S. officials, according to CCTV, citing U.S. media. Trump said on Friday that he was “not satisfied” with Iran’s new proposal, but added that he would “rather not” launch an attack on Iran. On the same day, he also announced on social media that he was raising tariffs on EU cars and trucks this week.
Affected by the news, on Friday, the dollar index fell below 98 to hit a two-week low after a V-shaped reversal, and eventually closed up 0.13% at 98.21; benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.379%, sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate of 2-year U.S. bond yields closed at 3.892%.
It is worth mentioning that the yen failed to keep the momentum of the big rally, on Friday, Japanese officials refused to confirm whether to intervene in the currency market, the dollar against the yen ended up 0.32% at 157.05. Traders believe that the possibility of Japan once again into the market to support the yen is increasing.
Spot gold fell more than 1% during the session before turning higher, with bullion pulling up after news of Iran’s negotiating program. In the end, spot gold closed down 0.14% at $4,615.48 per ounce, while spot silver closed up 2.17% at $75.32 per ounce.

Against the backdrop of the still tense situation in the Middle East, international gold prices have just refreshed the worst bi-monthly decline in history. Traditional safe-haven assets by the dollar higher continued to suppress, the U.S. stock market stabilized back also let the attraction of gold faded. Looking ahead, when the U.S. and Iran reached a peace agreement, the Federal Reserve’s position and central bank purchasing continuity or become an important reference for the turning point of the gold price.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has come to its 60th day. The conflict has disrupted global markets and triggered stagflation fears of “soaring inflation + economic slowdown”. Traders previously bet that global central banks may need to raise interest rates to curb high inflation, gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, high interest rates will increase its opportunity cost of ownership, the gold price suppression. In addition, market liquidity disturbances have also repeatedly triggered gold passive selling, further exacerbating the downtrend. Dow Jones market data show that the COMEX gold near-month contract in March-April cumulative plunge of 11.77%, the largest bi-monthly net decline on record.
Asset management organization BK Asset Management macro strategist Boris Schlossberg (Boris Schlossberg) said in an interview with China Business News, from the recent situation, geopolitical factors gradually become a “reverse” factor. “This depends largely on the change in the trend of the dollar, behind the liquidity factor in it.” He analyzed that if the U.S. and Iran are expected to reach a peace agreement, the gold price will rebound sharply; on the contrary, if the U.S. military launched a ground invasion, the gold price will fall in reverse.

Iran has sent a new proposal for peace talks to the United States through Pakistani mediators, official Iranian media reported on Friday. The Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency (IRNA) said the text of the proposal was officially handed over to the Pakistani government on Thursday evening.
CBS News later quoted Pakistani officials as saying that Iran’s latest response to the terms of the peace deal proposed by the United States had been sent to U.S. officials. This confirms reports in the official Iranian media that Iran has made a new proposal and agreed to at least a second round of direct peace talks.
After news that Iran agreed to talk nuclear and freeze uranium enrichment activities for the long term in a new proposal for peace talks, international oil prices continued to extend their losses, with WTI crude dropping 5% on the day and Brent crude plunging 4%. Spot gold and silver continued to rally, gold erased all of its intraday losses, hitting a high of $4,660 per ounce, and spot silver jumped 4% during the day.CBS News noted that Iran’s previous proposal had attempted to postpone any discussion of the nuclear issue to a later date, and that this proposal was rejected by Trump. And given Iran’s new proposal, a deal is more likely than before, with Pakistani officials expressing optimism.
Earlier this week, Iran offered a negotiating proposal to hold off on discussing the nuclear program until the conflict is officially over and the shipping issue is resolved, but Trump insisted on the condition that the nuclear issue be resolved at the outset.

On Thursday, as the Japanese authorities intervened to support the yen exchange rate, the dollar index fell sharply, intraday once fell to near the 98 mark, and finally closed down 0.86% at 98.08; benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yields closed at 4.375%, and 2-year U.S. bond yields, which are sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, closed at 3.873%. The dollar took a huge hit against the yen, falling below 156 to a 19-month low during the day.
Spot gold rebounded sharply in the European trading session, surging above $4,640 during the session, and then fell into shock, finally closing up 1.72% at $4,621.71 per ounce; spot silver finally closed up 3.41% at $73.71 per ounce.
International oil prices rose and then fell, WTI crude oil once stood above 110 U.S. dollars, but then quickly retracted all the gains and turned down, and finally closed down 2.9% at 107.00 U.S. dollars / barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.84% at 110.09 U.S. dollars / barrel.
U.S. stocks closed up 1.62% on the Dow, 1.02% on the S&P 500, and 0.89% on the Nasdaq. Alphabet (GOOG.O) closed up 9.95% to a new all-time high, while Qualcomm (QCOM.O) rose more than 15%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 2.1%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) rose more than 1%.