China’s refined oil prices are set to be cut again, with gasoline and diesel prices falling by 950 yuan and 915 yuan per metric ton, respectively. According to Xinhua News Agency, this price adjustment marks the largest decline of the year and the biggest drop in nearly six years.
So far this year, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted 13 times. Excluding the first adjustment at the beginning of the year, which did not result in a price change, there have been eight increases and four decreases. As of now, gasoline prices are 590 yuan per metric ton higher than at the start of the year.
Looking ahead to oil price trends in the second half of the year, Yao Daming, Secretary-General of the Guangdong Petroleum Society, told a reporter from *Times Weekly* that since international oil prices are gradually becoming less influenced by supply and demand dynamics and are instead driven by narratives—particularly those in U.S. public discourse—and given that the Strait of Hormuz has now entered the mine-clearing phase,and the situation in the Middle East is relatively stable, oil prices may trend downward in the second half of the year.
However, he predicted that the turning point for the decline might occur around October, because “negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are unlikely to go smoothly, and there remains a possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed again.”
On January 1 of this year, WTI and Brent crude oil prices stood at $83.37 per barrel and $87.81 per barrel, respectively. At that time, domestic 92-octane gasoline was approximately 6.72 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline was 7.22 yuan per liter.
As of the time of publication (July 3), WTI and Brent crude oil prices stood at $69.06 per barrel and $72.30 per barrel, respectively—down $14.31 per barrel and $15.51 per barrel from their prices at the beginning of the year.
Reflecting these changes in domestic gasoline prices—which have seen eight increases and four decreases—the current price is 590 yuan per metric ton higher than at the beginning of the year, though it still lags somewhat behind the fluctuations in international oil prices.